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Phase 4 Discussion Board I. INTRODUCTION There are many ways to forecast the timetable and expenses of a project. I am aware that the forecasting

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Phase 4 Discussion Board I. INTRODUCTION


There are many ways to forecast the timetable and expenses of a project. I am aware that the forecasting methods I utilize and their precision will influence the CIO's viewpoint of my


work. The company’s CIO would like for me to focus on the subsequent matters in a report for


the many group participants involved with the email system upgrade project: What are the benefits of inflating a project based on PERT estimations or incorporating


risk? What are the pitfalls of inflating a project based on PERT estimations or incorporating


risk? II. How does this technique compare with estimating or forecasting techniques you have


used in the past? PERT


PERT, Program Evaluation and Review Technique, is an estimation method that utilizes the weighted-average of three figures to establish an approximation of the tasks necessary to


complete in a project. The optimistic figure is when activities in a project are completed perfectly


from start to finish, which would result in the lowest amount of time to complete. In other words,


the optimistic estimate is the best possible time it would take to complete the task. The


pessimistic figure is when activities in a project are completed with everything going wrong from


start to finish, which would result in the highest amount of time to complete. In other words, the


pessimistic estimate is the worst possible time it would take for the task to be completed. The


most likely figure is when normal issues occur and is founded on the length of the task, the


allocated assets, the accessibility of members to complete the task, and any delays. The PERT


formula is E = (O + 4M + P)/6, where O = optimistic value, M = most likely value, and P =


pessimistic value. This formula is a weighted-average where the most likely estimation is


weighted 4 times more than the other two estimates in order to avoid the PERT estimation being


seriously slanted in a single way. (PMBOK, 2013)


The PERT estimation will be either somewhat in the direction of the optimistic estimate or


somewhat in the direction of the pessimistic estimate, contingent upon which is farthest from the


most likely estimate. Typically this moves the estimation closer to the pessimistic value due to


the fact that it tends to be farther away from the most likely figure than the optimistic figure.




There are several benefits to utilizing PERT, which include: PERT compels managers to strategically strategize and examine how all of the pieces fit into the entire project


PERT permits the PM to forecast a timetable and expenses of the project prior to starting


PERT is a forward-looking management tool for managers


PERT gives emphasis to on-time conclusion of the project and evades postponements


PERT empowers the willpower of the likelihoods regarding the timetable of tasks and project completion


PERT proposes ways to increase proficiency and reduce expenses


PERT offers current material of the project so postponements and disruptions can be decreased


PERT contributes with organizing the various tasks of the complete project There are also some pitfalls of PERT that exist and include: There are times when all tasks cannot be listed prior to the start of a project


The theory that a project can be split into independent tasks is not always the case


PERT is grounded on estimations and there could be faults in them


PERT necessitates numerous updates and revisions of computations


PERT is an extensive and time intense application that necessitates extremely


skilled workers (Kalpana, 2013) IV. COMPARISON WITH PAST USED ESTIMATING




In the past I have utilized several different estimating methods including: Expert Judgment – utilizes experts to approximate expenses Analogous Estimating – utilizes past figures from comparable projects to


approximate costs Parametric Estimating – utilizes numerical modeling to create an expense


approximation Bottom-Up Estimating – utilizes the approximations of single tasks and then


adds them together to get a project estimation Reserve Analysis – utilized to decide how much unforeseen event reserve, if


any, needs to be assigned to a project Vendor Bid Analysis – utilized to approximate expenses by analyzing the bids


received by several vendors for a project (Project Cost Estimating Tools &


Techniques, 2016) Utilizing PERT was a pretty simple calculation to come up with an estimate for the


project when compared to the above methods. The degree of doubt is a factor with many of the


days estimated to complete a task due to the potential risks that could occur and make the task


take several days longer than what was estimated. Project managers always need to keep in mind


that estimation always contains doubt. Doubt is created from low experience, how far in the


future some tasks may be, the length of a project, and the number of people available to work on


a project and their accompanying knowledge and skill set. (Project Cost Estimating Tools &


Techniques, 2016) V. REFERENCES A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK Guide). (2013). Project


Management Institute. Retrieved from


Kalpana, R. (2013). (PERT): Origin, Methodology, Advantages and Limitations. Business


Management Ideas. Retrieved from


Project Cost Estimating Tools & Techniques. (2016). Project Management Skills. Retrieved from


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Oct 15, 2019





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